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December 29, 2006

21st Century Investing Requires Global Strategy

Today’s portfolio management requires 21st century approach.  Twenty years ago, the bulk of investment available to individual investors consisted of U.S. stocks and bonds.  Now, however, we have access to a wide range of securities sold throughout the world.  Several changes have caused this explosion of investment opportunities.  The growth and development of numerous foreign financial markets, such as of those in Japan, the U.K, and Germany, as well as in the emerging markets, such as China, have made these markets accessible and viable for investors around the world.

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December 28, 2006

It’s the oil stupid!

When it comes to the stock market these days, the price of oil plays a big part on where the market goes. While oil has been on the decline as of late, don’t be fool.  The good old days of $30, $40 or even $50/barrel will never return.  According to recent AP report, the world produces about 85 million barrels per day and we consume all of it.  The world can’t get enough of it.  Moreover, if the price of oil falls too quickly, all that the oil czar has to do is cut production to keep prices high.  The oil market is the most manipulated of any commodity.  The dream of “untapped reserves” and “alternative energy” is misleading and far from reality.  

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December 26, 2006

Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) analysis

Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) trading around $38/share with a P/E of 19 and 17x EPS appears inexpensive at first glance.  Let’s take a closer look; Bed Bath & Beyond operates 760 Bed Bath & Beyond stores throughout the United States. The company also owns Christmas Tree Shops, a 31-store giftware and household items retailer, and Harmon Stores, a 38-store health- and beauty-care retailer. The stores' floor-to-ceiling shelves stock better-quality bed linens, kitchen items, and home furnishings (seekingalpha, 2006).

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December 22, 2006

Toyota Motors Corp (TM) is actually inexepensive

With all the attention Toyota ™has been receiving lately, one would think Toyota is the only car company worth investing in.  The problem however is the stock price of TM has already risen so much this year that it’s difficult not to worry about its valuation.  Let’s briefly take a closer look at TM’s valuation.

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December 21, 2006

iBooyah.com 2007 Predictions

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!  As 2006 comes to a close, it’s time for us to look at 2007.  2006 has been a great year for stocks.  The DOW is up 15%.  Will we see similar gains in 2007? Here are some predictions:

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December 20, 2006

Does Baidu (BIDU) hold the key to China?

Often referred to as the “Google of China”, Baidu (BIDU) has been humming along since its IPO in August 2005.  The stock was an instant hit as investors was still enthusiastic after the success of Google’s IPO. The stock (BIDU) opened at around $120/share.  The enthusiasm quickly turned into doubt as Wall Street began to question the viability of Baidu, especially when Google appear to have a lock on the search business.  Most analysts were quick to dismiss the company as they were unable to justify the sky high valuation.  This pessimism caused the stock to hit bottom in February 2006, at around $44/share (Yahoo! Finance, 2006).

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December 19, 2006

Psst! Newly IPO - KBR Inc. (KBR) is sound

KBR is a subsidiary of Haliburton (HAL).  On November 19, 2006, HAL spun off KBR as a separate entity.  The issue was offered at $17/share to exclusive investors and closed up 22% on the first day of trading. It was a very successful IPO; the company netted $440 million.  It is important to note, HAL still owns over 80% of KBR, but plan to sell the remaining shares to the public in April 2007 (AP, 2006).

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December 18, 2006

What Stock Options Backdating Scandal?

The recent Stock Options backdating scandal that has swept the business world in 2006 is proving to be a non-issue in terms of stock performance.  While the practice is illegal and companies that were affected must restate their earnings and pay fines, these stocks have actually performed well given the negative press. For example, Apple (AAPL) is up 22%, Adobe up (ADBE) 15.8%, Applied Micro Circuits (AMCC) up 44.4%, and BEA Systems (BEAS) up 41.6% YTD (Bloomberg Financial, 2006).  All these companies have or are currently being investigated by the SEC.  As you might have noticed, the bulk of these backdating options companies were in Technology sector as Hi-Tech issue stock options to recruit and retain employees.

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December 15, 2006

Oracle Corp. (ORCL) still cheap

In a bull market such as the one we are currently in, it is challenging to find bargains.  The DOW keeps breaking records with no end in sight.  The NASDAQ has been stellar and the S&P 500 is on a tear.  Amid all these frenzy, there remain several technology companies that have yet to fully reap the benefits of this bull market.  One of these technology companies is Oracle Corp. (ORCL), the second largest software company behind Microsoft (MSFT).

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December 12, 2006

Playing with fire, aka hot stocks!

In my 15 years of trading and investing in the stock market, I have never been fond of the so call “hot stocks”.  The fundamental problem with “hot stocks” is by the time the news reaches the public; the stock is usually over-priced at that point.  Consumed by greed, people are tempted to join in on the action in fear of being left behind.  The media sometimes further hypes the stocks.  We see this every morning on CNBC where some analyst is being interviewed and touting a stock. Once enough people have jumped aboard, the institutional investors then dump their positions, leaving the small investors holding the bag.  Despite the dotcom fiasco, people still haven’t learned this important lesson. Lesson number one; never attempt to jump on a train when it’s going at full speed.  Lesson two, don't play with fire because you will get burn!

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December 11, 2006

Marriott International (MAR)

On a recent vacation in Hawaii, we decided to stay at the J.W Marriott Resort and Spa.  While the hotel was on the expensive side, we were quite impressed with the hotel and services.  The staffs were friendly; the rooms large and clean, the services were excellent.  When I got back, I started to look at MAR and possibly adding this stock to my portfolio. 

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Dell back in business

Last month I wrote that Dell was a buying opportunity.  Less than two months later, it appears I was correct.  After much problems, Dell finally reported and beat the street by 6 cents per share. The stock shot up almost 9% in after-hours action on that day. In my view, DELL is not yet done.  This stock has the potential to move towards $30/share.  With the implending released of MSFT Vista, 2007 looks bright as corporations would be looking to upgrade.

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December 07, 2006

E.Coli making YUM! Brands (YUM) attractive

We believed the declined in YUM! Brands (YUM) in recent days represent an opportunity to buy.  While the Taco Bell food poisoning incident that has been linked to green onion is a PR nightmare and an unfortunate event; the drop in YUM’s share is beginning to look attractive for long term investment.  In the short term, this type of events will certainly have an affect on sales as consumers will think twice before eating at Taco Bell. One important thing to note is YUM! owns many other brands so the impact should be minimal. 

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December 06, 2006

Homebuilders to return in 2007

For Homebuilders across the country, 2006 could be viewed as the year the housing bubble finally released some hot air. Similar to the 2000 dotcom bubble, these homebuilder stocks have dropped 50% or more from their all time highs.  While the media loves to report on how terrible the housing market is, I believed this is the best opportunity for investors.  In some parts of California, new homes that were once selling for 400K is now having hard time moving at 340K.  Despite incentives such as free upgrades and cash back, buyers are not willing to commit.

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December 05, 2006

Yahoo! (YHOO) is cracking?

Yahoo! to reorganize into three groups. The company official press release indicates that they will now align themselves around three key customer segments: “audiences, advertisers/publishers and technology”

“The Internet is continuing to grow and evolve at a rapid pace, and we’re reshaping Yahoo! to be a leader in this transformation, just as we did successfully five years ago,” said Terry Semel, Yahoo chairman and CEO, in the release. “Our strategy capitalizes on big emerging trends and leverages our core strengths in search, media, communities and communications. We believe having a more customer-focused organization, supported by robust technology, will speed the development of leading-edge experiences for our most valuable audience segments.”

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Satellite Radio Evolution (XMSR and SIRI)

Satellite radio providers such as XM (XMSR) and Sirius (SIRI) was suppose to be the next big thing when first launched.  After several years in the market place, it is proving to be a tough proposition. The idea of paying for radio just never caught on.  Moreover, the fact consumers must buy hardware has prevented the technology from reaching critical mass.  The startup cost makes no economic sense.   This is the fundamental problem facing companies such as XM and Sirius.  Both XM and Sirius appears to be in deep trouble. The future of these two companies appears bleak to say the least.

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Critical Analysis of Salesforce.com (CRM)

Executive Summary 

     According to a recent AMR research, the overall customer management market is expected to reach $18 billion by 2010.  Within the customer management market, the hosted market is expected to rapidly grow, taking market share away from the traditional desktop application vendors (Salesforce.com, 2006).  Driven by the desire to help companies avoid the high cost and hassle of installing and running on their own server applications, Salesforce.com has created a niche for itself by providing software as a service via the Internet.

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The impact of weak dollar

If you have been paying attention, you will notice the dollar is getting weaker.  Few Americans like the recent beating the U.S. dollar has taken; half of this year’s 8-10% slide has come in the past month. A sustained drop could lead to the Fed raising interest rates. The question is will this continue?, it's difficult to say, but with interest rates and growth rising in most other parts of the world, unlike the U.S., its drop may be sustainable. For one domestic group, American multinational corporations, who derive a good part of their revenues from overseas, this is good news.

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December 04, 2006

Getting started: step by step

While this subject may seem trivial to most experienced investors, I often hear people asking what they need to do in order to start trading stocks.  If you are new to the stock market or are just wondering how to get started, here is what you will need to do:

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Pfizer "knee jerk" reaction

Pfizer (PFE) is taking it on the chin this morning as investors are running for the hills.  The stock is down about 13% from Friday’s close.  Dropping from $27/share to $24/share, PFE has lost about $30 billion in market capitalization. The primary reason for the sell off is due to halted development of a key new cholesterol treatment that was heralded as the engine to re-ignite the company's stagnant sales.  The news is certainly a disappointment.  However, the company did the right thing and cuts its loss instead of attempting to cover up the failed clinical trial, which actually caused a couple of death.  If this drug has been released, the damage would be far worse.

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December 03, 2006

Buy.com versus Crutchfield.com Analysis

Case Study: Comparison of Crutchfield.com and Buy.com

Introduction

This dramatic increase in overall business-to-consumer commerce has been accompanied by an exponential increase in the number of e-tailers. Fueled by the early success of e-tailers such as Amazon.com, a number of firms have joined the fray. As a result, the level of consumer choices today is unprecedented. The common e-tailers model includes "click and mortar firms, retailers with previous experience in brick and mortar stores as well as purely Internet based retailers (Turban, King, Viehland & Lee, 2006).

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December 01, 2006

Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO): Cisco Returns

Cisco has always been one of my favorite technology companies.  During the dotcom days, CSCO was the Google (GOOG) of today.  With market capitalization to the moon, this stock was the one to own.  To put it into perspective, Cisco market capitalization over took Microsoft for a short period during the hay days of the internet bubble. Since the dotcom bust of 2000, Cisco has been has been struggling to find its way back. 

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"Hard Landing" and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)

All these talk and worries about the economy having a “hard landing” is all nonsense.  In fact, I’m  hoping we get a few more bad economic data so the FOMC would ease on interest rates.  A reduction of .25 basis point would absolutely drive the market higher.

In this current market environment, it is important to keep your cool.  Don’t panic and start unloading all your positions.  Instead, look through your positions and sell off some of your gain.  There is no sin about taking money off the table.   Only sin is leaving money on the table in the hope it will continue to grow and ending up with a lost.  Look for opportunities to add positions that are undervalued.

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Home Depot (HD) needs new blood

The year 2006 could very well be remembered as the year of leverage buyouts.  The private equity firms appear to be on a mission to take over under performing companies.  For example, In September, Freescale Semiconductor (FSL) agreed to sell for $17.6 billion.  The deal was almost 25% more than FSL’s value at that time.  This morning, there are reports KKR and Texas Pacific is kicking Home Depot’s tires.  Home Depot’s stock jumped approximately 5% on the news.  As I am writing this, the stock is trading at $39.18/share, an increase of 3.19%. 

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