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Our views on DirectTV (DTV) and Dish Network (DISH)

02-20-07: A few of our readers were interested in our thoughts on DirectTV.  As it turns out, this weekend, we ran into an article on Marketwatch.com which reported AT&T might be interested in buying either DTV or Echostar Communications (DISH).   Our opinion is if you are currently a DTV investor, hold on to your shares, it is about to get interesting.  AT&T has been trying to break into the video business for a few years now without much success.  Buying DTV or DISH outright could be the next logical move.

The Marketwatch.com article seems to indicate it is only a matter of time before AT&T buys DISH or DTV.  We agree with this assessment.  Given AT&T currently has a distribution relationship with DISH; our prediction is DISH is likely the best candidate to be acquired (if it were to happen).  However, DTV is actually less expensive in terms of valuation so DTV is not entirely out of the game. 

This is a very exciting time for the television industry as broadcasters will need to broadcast in high-definition soon.  The demand for quality HD programming is very much real.  Personally, when we first bought our HD-TV, the first thing we needed to consider was whether to stay with cable or go with satellite.  It really came down to which company had the best HD programming.  After having been a cable customer forever, we decided to switch to satellite.  We are glad to say, in terms of the quality of programming and price, satellite is much better in our opinion. 

As the price of HD-TV declines, we believe the demand for programming choices and value will only continue to grow.  While cable appears to have the advantage given it’s already wired in most homes, satellite is gaining momentum.  The TV revolution is the main catalyst that will continue to drive satellite operators.  DTV is trading in the low 20s today.  We feel this stock is actually trading at fair market value in comparison to its peers.  While we would not consider DTV a value stock, it is a stock we would certainly hold and buy on weakness.  Long term investors should do well.

Comments

Thank you for the insight. Your articles are helping me a lot to pick out the winners from the middle-men.

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